Trump’s Trade Claims vs. the Data: Tax Foundation President Daniel Bunn Sets the Record Straight
As I have previously written in this space, the important long-term value of last year's One Big Beautiful Bill lies in its permanent, pro-growth elements: reduced taxes, reduced regulation, and immediate expensing—policies designed to boost investment and productivity.
I therefore read with great interest, Tax Foundation President, Daniel Bunn’s recent op-ed over on Fortune, which provides a sharp, evidence-based assessment of the One Big Beautiful Bill—and its troubling contradictions with ongoing trade policies.
Bunn correctly highlights these strengths while refusing to ignore the stark downsides embedded in the same package. Rather than celebrating fleeting or superficial benefits, he focuses on the substantive issues: the bill’s non-pro-growth measures, such as no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, and reduced taxation of Social Security benefits for seniors. These provisions add huge complexity to the tax code, reduce economic growth by distorting incentives and favoring narrow groups over broad efficiency, and substantially increase the deficit—potentially adding roughly $1 trillion over the next decade compared to prior projections when combined with the effects of tariffs.
At the same time, Bunn does not shy away from the even greater contradictions created by the current trade war, including tariffs that generate revenue but act as non-pro-growth barriers. His discussion of effective tariff rates—now the highest since the 1940s, down from initially proposed levels that would have rivaled the 1920s—combined with the acknowledgment that U.S. consumers bear the overwhelming share of these costs (far more than the administration's cited 20 percent figure, with recent independent studies showing Americans absorbing up to 96 percent of the burden as foreign exporters pass through nearly all of it), underscores the true, hidden price tags of protectionism. These are the kinds of facts that cut through political narratives and merit serious consideration.
This column is essential reading for anyone following tax, trade, or fiscal policy in 2026. Daniel Bunn reminds us of the mounting long-term budget pressures—where interest on the national debt could soon consume nearly a quarter of all tax revenue—and calls for responsible reforms that align with sustainable economic growth. At Tax Politix we strive to elevate evidence-based voices like his, and I encourage every reader to take the time to engage with his piece. It exemplifies the kind of rigorous, non-partisan analysis our policy debates desperately need right now.